Common institutional investors and the quality of management earnings forecasts-Empirical and machine learning evidences.

Based on the data of the Chinese A-share listed firms in China Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange from 2014 to 2021, this article explores the relationship between common institutional investors and the quality of management earnings forecasts. The study used the multiple linear regression model and empirically found that common institutional investors positively impact the precision of earnings forecasts. This article also uses graph neural networks to predict the precision of earnings forecasts. Our findings have shown that common institutional investors form external supervision over restricting management to release a wide width of earnings forecasts, which helps to improve the risk warning function of earnings forecasts and promote the sustainable development of information disclosure from management in the Chinese capital market. One of the marginal contributions of this paper is that it enriches the literature related to the economic consequences of common institutional shareholding. Then, the neural network method used to predict the quality of management forecasts enhances the research method of institutional investors and the behavior of management earnings forecasts. Thirdly, this paper calls for strengthening information sharing and circulation among institutional investors to reduce information asymmetry between investors and management.

Understanding the role of village fund and administrative capacity in stunting reduction: Empirical evidence from Indonesia.

The Indonesian government launched various programs to handle stunting cases, including village funds. This paper examined the effects of village fund programs and village apparatuses' capacities to combat stunting based on aggregate data at the district level in Indonesia. Using descriptive data analysis and fixed effect panel regression, we observed that village fund programs could significantly reduce Indonesia's stunting prevalence, especially outside Java. It also revealed that the increasing education of regional leaders does not necessarily positively impact leaders' skills in handling stunting. At the same time, the number of village officials has a statistically significant influence on reducing stunting prevalence. It advised that the village budget fund can support national priorities in tackling the prevalence of stunting. Furthermore, it is essential to build the capacity of the village head for increasing awareness of health activities, especially early prevention of stunting, in addition to an adequate number of officials.

Downstream funding success of early career researchers for resubmitted versus new applications: A matched cohort.

BACKGROUND: Early career researchers face a hypercompetitive funding environment. To help identify effective intervention strategies for early career researchers, we examined whether first-time NIH R01 applicants who resubmitted their original, unfunded R01 application were more successful at obtaining any R01 funding within 3 and 5 years than original, unfunded applicants who submitted new NIH applications, and we examined whether underrepresented minority (URM) applicants differentially benefited from resubmission. Our observational study is consistent with an NIH working group's recommendations to develop interventions to encourage resubmission. METHODS AND FINDINGS: First-time applicants with US medical school academic faculty appointments who submitted an unfunded R01 application between 2000-2014 yielded 4,789 discussed and 7,019 not discussed applications. We then created comparable groups of first-time R01 applicants (resubmitted original R01 application or submitted new NIH applications) using optimal full matching that included applicant and application characteristics. Primary and subgroup analyses used generalized mixed models with obtaining any NIH R01 funding within 3 and 5 years as the two outcomes. A gamma sensitivity analysis was performed. URM applicants represented 11% and 12% of discussed and not discussed applications, respectively. First-time R01 applicants resubmitting their original, unfunded R01 application were more successful obtaining R01 funding within 3 and 5 years than applicants submitting new applications-for both discussed and not discussed applications: discussed within 3 years (OR 4.17 [95 CI 3.53, 4.93]) and 5 years (3.33 [2.82-3.92]); and not discussed within 3 years (2.81 [2.52, 3.13]) and 5 years (2.47 [2.22-2.74]). URM applicants additionally benefited within 5 years for not discussed applications. CONCLUSIONS: Encouraging early career researchers applying as faculty at a school of medicine to resubmit R01 applications is a promising potential modifiable factor and intervention strategy. First-time R01 applicants who resubmitted their original, unfunded R01 application had log-odds of obtaining downstream R01 funding within 3 and 5 years 2-4 times higher than applicants who did not resubmit their original application and submitted new NIH applications instead. Findings held for both discussed and not discussed applications.

The role of self-esteem, optimism, deliberative thinking and self-control in shaping the financial behavior and financial well-being of young adults.

The sustainable financial behavior and financial well-being have been a key concern among the developing societies; thereby encompassing the various psychological factors which play a role in influencing individual's positive financial behavior and financial well-being, this study is conducted. Research focusing on the psychological aspect of human financial behavior and well-being is scarce, focusing more on the cognitive side such as financial literacy and numeracy. The aim of this research study is to find the role played by the non-cognitive factors such as self-esteem, self-control, optimism and deliberative thinking, in forming the financial behavior and financial well-being of the young adults. A sample of 429 university students from public and private sector was collected via an online and field survey using purposive sampling technique. The survey contained measures for demographics, self-esteem, optimism, deliberative thinking, self-control, general financial behavior and financial well-being. SPSS and PLS-SEM tools were used for the exploration of the relationships among dependent and independent variables. The results of PLS path analysis demonstrate that among the non-cognitive factors, self-control and deliberative thinking show a significant association with both financial behavior, and financial security. Self-esteem plays no significant role in forming the financial behavior of the young adults when all the variables are taken together but it exhibits a significant association with financial well-being (financial security and financial anxiety). Optimism on the other hand exhibits no significant association with both financial behavior and financial well-being (financial security and financial anxiety). The results of this study complement the previous studies and also put forth new outcomes. This research is unique as it is the first of its kind conducted in a consumption-oriented economy like Pakistan. In addition to the previous studies which have often established the link of self-esteem with general well-being, this study goes further by analyzing the association between self-esteem and financial well-being and by the identification of the role played by non-cognitive factors like self-esteem, optimism, deliberative thinking and self-control together on the financial behavior and financial well-being of the individuals using PLS-SEM approach.

Socially responsible investing through the equity funds in the global ownership network.

We analyze the connectivity of equity investments to the firms in the global ownership network that are reported as non-compliant with Environment, Social, and Government (ESG) benchmarks. We find that a large number of shareholders have ownership linkages to non-ESG firms, most commonly with three or four degrees of separation. Analyzing the betweenness centrality for shareholders connecting the ultimate owners and non-ESG firms, we find that the investment management companies play important roles in channeling the investment money into non-ESG firms, where largest American asset managers commonly have one to two degrees of separation on their ownership linkages to those problematic firms. Since asset managers collect capital from investors by running the equity funds, we analyze the ownership stakes and the associated voting rights attributable to the equity funds investors. We estimate the distribution of the power of corporate control over non-ESG firms among specific asset managers (such as BlackRock and Fidelity) and among different types of the equity funds (such as mutual funds and exchanged-traded funds), and explores how investing in the equity funds rather than ownership investing may have shifted the distribution of the power to control those non-ESG firms.

Is there a moderate range of impact of financialization on corporate R&D?

How to promote corporate research and development is a particularly important issue under the background of the economy being diverted out of the real economy. By selecting samples of 1221 Chinese A-share non-financial listed companies from 2010 to 2019, this paper examines the impact of financialization on research and development through the panel threshold regression model. Then, the moderate range of the impact of financialization on corporate research and development is measured, as well as their heterogeneity is also analyzed. The research shows the following results: first, there is a dynamic relationship and moderate range between financialization and corporate research and development. Financialization has a positive effect on corporate research and development when the level of financialization exceeds 0.4748. Secondly, from further heterogeneous research, financialization has a threshold effect on research and development among enterprises with a high level of research and development. In addition, there is a promoting effect on corporate research and development only when their financialization level exceeds 0.0097 in enterprises with a high level of research and development. Therefore, in order to promote corporate research and development, financialization of non-financial enterprises should make adjustment and regulation according to the action and direction of moderate range.

Worldwide production on sleep apnea from 2009-2018. Analysis of the ability to secure funding and international collaboration networks.

BACKGROUND: Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is an emerging health problem, but information on scientific production in this subject area is scarce. We aim to evaluate the scientific production on OSA from 2009 to 2018 to illustrate its worldwide distribution, topic areas, and ability to secure funding, as well as to describe international collaboration networks in this field. METHODS: Articles published between 2009 and 2018 were extracted from the Science Citation Index Expanded via Web of Science (WoS) using the search term "obstructive sleep apn*". Publication year, number and country of authors, journal, subject category, key words, funding source and number of citations received were recorded. We also conducted network analyses for key words and international collaboration. RESULTS: 12,666 articles on OSA were located, which had increased from 895 documents in 2009 to 1592 in 2018. The progressive growth in scientific production on OSA had outpaced the growth rate of total WoS production since 2012.50% of the articles declared some type of funding, with a citation index higher than manuscripts that were not funded. The manuscripts were distributed in journals from 135 subject categories of the WoS, and keyword distribution showed a dispersed pattern with a high number of nodes. The international collaboration rate was 18.2%, and the country network showed the United States as the hegemonic node. CONCLUSION: World production on OSA has grown at a higher rate than global production and shows notable thematic dispersion as well as a high ability to secure funding, which increases its impact.

Nonlinear relationship between money market rate and stock market liquidity in China: A multifractal analysis.

This paper employs the multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA) model to estimate the nonlinear relationship between the money market rate and stock market liquidity in China from a multifractal perspective, leading to a better understanding of the complexity in the relationship between the interest rate and stock market liquidity. The empirical results show that the cross-correlations between the money market rate and stock market liquidity present antipersistence in the long run and that they tend to be positively persistent in the short run. The negative cross-correlations between the interest rate and stock market liquidity are more significant than the positive cross-correlations. Furthermore, the cross-correlations between the money market rate and stock market liquidity display multifractal characteristics, explaining the variations in the relationship between the interest rate and stock market liquidity at different time scales. In addition, the lower degree of multifractality in the cross-correlations between the money market rate and stock market liquidity confirms that it is effective for the interest rate to control stock market liquidity. The Chinese stock market liquidity is more sensitive to fluctuations in the money market rate in the short term and is inelastic in response to the money market rate in the long term. In particular, the positive cross-correlations between the money market rate and stock market liquidity in the short run become strong in periods of crises and emergencies. All the evidence proves that the interest rate policy is an emergency response rather than an effective response to mounting concerns regarding the economic impact of unexpected exogenous emergencies and that the interest rate cut policy will not be as effective as expected.

Predicting corporate credit risk: Network contagion via trade credit.

Trade credit is a payment extension granted by a selling firm to its customer. Companies typically respond to late payments from their customers by delaying payments to suppliers, thus generating a ripple through the transaction network. Therefore, trade credit is as a potential vehicle of propagation of losses in case of default events. The goal of this work is to leverage information on the trade credit among connected firms to predict imminent defaults of firms. We use a unique dataset of client firms of a major Italian bank to investigate firm bankruptcy between October 2016 to March 2018. We develop a model to capture network spillover effects originating from the supply chain on the probability of default of each firm via a sequential approach: the output of a first model component on single firm features is used in a subsequent model which captures network spillovers. While the first component is the standard econometrics way to predict such dynamics, the network module represents an innovative way to look into the effect of trade credit on default probability. This module looks at the transaction network of the firm, as inferred from the payments transiting via the bank, in order to identify the trade partners of the firm. By using several features extracted from the network of transactions, this model is able to predict a large fraction of the defaults, thus showing the value hidden in the network information. Finally, we merge firm and network features with a machine learning model to create a 'hybrid' model, which improves the recall for the task by almost 20 percentage points over the baseline.

Multistage allocation problem for Mexican pension funds.

The problem of multistage allocation is solved using the Target Date Fund (TDF) strategy subject to a set of restrictions which model the latest regulatory framework of the Mexican pension system. The investment trajectory or glide-path for a representative set of 14 assets of heterogeneous characteristics is studied during a 161 quarters long horizon. The expected returns are estimated by the GARCH(1,1), EGARCH(1,1), GJR-GARCH(1,1) models, and a stationary block bootstrap model is used as a benchmark for comparison. A fixed historical covariance matrix and a multi-period estimation of DCC-GARCH(1,1) are also considered as inputs of the objective function. Forecasts are evaluated through their asymmetric dependencies as quantified by the transfer entropy measure. In general, we find very similar glide-paths so that the overall structure of the investment is maintained and does not rely on the particular forecasting model. However, the GARCH(1,1) under a fixed historical covariance matrix exhibits the highest Sharpe ratio and in this sense represents the best trade-off between wealth and risk. As expected, the initial stages of the obtained glide-paths are initially dominated by risky assets and gradually transition into bonds towards the end oof the trajectory. Overall, the methodology proposed here is computationally efficient and displays the desired properties of a TDF strategy in realistic settings.

Optimal statistical arbitrage trading of Berkshire Hathaway stock and its replicating portfolio.

In this paper, we make use of the replicating asset for statistical arbitrage trading, where the replicating asset is constructed by a portfolio that mimics the returns from a factor model. Using the replicating asset in the context of statistical arbitrage has never been done before in the literature. A novel optimal statistical arbitrage trading model is applied, and we derive the average transaction length and return for the Berkshire A stock and its replicating asset. The results show that the statistical arbitrage method proposed by Bertram (2010) is profitable by using the replicating asset. We also compute the average returns under different transaction costs. For the statistical arbitrage using the replicating asset of the factor model, average annual returns were at least 33%. Robustness is examined with the S&P500. Our results can provide hedge fund managers with a new technique for conducting statistical arbitrage.

Billing, coding, and practice management: a primer for today's reproductive medicine professional.

Despite years of recognition that many physicians are woefully unprepared to face challenges regarding the business of medicine, marginal progress has been made. In this piece, we aim to provide the contemporary reproductive medicine physician with an understanding of billing, coding, and, most importantly, cost containment for a typical fertility practice. It is critical for modern practices to not forego hard-earned revenue to insurance companies or not be aware of critical rules and regulations. While running a successful fertility practice requires good medical care, a profitable practice is necessary for overall long-term success. This article provides a brief history of medical insurance and billing, explains the process of updating billing codes, and reviews the revenue cycle, cost containment, and contract negotiations with insurance companies.

Trends Over a Decade in NIH Funding for Autism Spectrum Disorder Services Research.

Investments in autism spectrum disorder (ASD) research, guided by the Interagency Autism Coordinating Committee (IACC), have focused disproportionately on etiology over a well-established stakeholder priority area: research to improve accessibility and quality of community-based services. This study analyzed National Institutes of Health ASD services research funding from 2008 to 2018 to examine funding patterns, evaluate the impact of IACC objectives, and identify future directions. Approximately 9% of total funds were allocated to services research. This investment remained relatively stable across time and lacked diversity across domains (e.g., area of focus, ages sampled, implementation strategies used). While advancements were observed, including increased prevalence of projects focused on adult samples and on dissemination/implementation and prevention areas, greater investment in service research is critically needed.

Financial fluency: demystifying accounting and business planning for the reproductive medicine specialist.

In today's ever-changing business climate, reproductive health specialists are realizing that financial fluency is key to growing and maintaining a successful practice. Although financial fundamentals such as accounting may seem complex, both academic and private practice reproductive specialists who understand these topics can benefit in making business decisions for their practices. We describe the key financial fundamentals that reproductive health specialists should know, including basic concepts of finance and accounting, payments and receivables, capital budgeting, and business planning, and interpreting balance sheets, income statements, and cash-flow statements.

Social and financial efficiency: Institutional characteristics of the partner organizations of Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund.

Efficiency analysis of the Partner Organizations can benefit all the microfinance sector's key stakeholders to benchmark the current scene and formulate optimal policy agenda. This study seeks to measure the partner organizations of the Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund's social and financial efficiency and to identify causes and sources of their inefficiencies. A non-parametric technique known as Data Envelopment Analysis is applied to investigate the Partner Organizations' efficiency throughout 2005-2015. The required data was obtained from the database of the Mix-Market and Pakistan Microfinance Network. The social and financial efficiency was estimated assuming Constant Return to Scale, Variable Return to Scale, and with respect to the Operational Scale of the Partner Organizations. Results revealed that the partner organizations are more scale efficient (median = 75%) than pure technically efficient (median = 55%). Further, graphical representations show a decreasing linear trend and negative serial correlation in the percentage of efficient partner organizations. The model fit results show that institutional characteristics that influence partner organizations' efficiencies significantly include their age, Operational Self-Sufficiency, personnel, loan officers, assets and debt. Finally, the diagnostic tests for endogeneity, heteroskedasticity, heterogeneity, and cross-sectional dependence were performed.

Private Equity Investments in Women's Health and Obstetrics and Gynecology Practices.

Private equity has evolved into a major force in health care, with deal values and volumes rising year-over-year as these firms purchase hospital systems and physician groups. Historically, these investors have played an outsized role in highly reimbursed specialties such as dermatology and anesthesia. Private equity is relatively new to women's health; when it has invested in this sector, it has typically done so in fertility services. In recent years, however, private equity firms have ventured into general obstetrics and gynecology, drawn by its promise of steady returns, its fragmented landscape, and the potential to integrate related laboratory, ultrasound, and fertility services into obstetric care. Obstetrics and gynecology practices may soon face the prospect of acquisition by private equity firms offering professional management, centralized back-office functions, streamlined customer service, and the capital needed to reach a broader patient base. However, physicians may have concerns about the tradeoffs that accompany private equity acquisitions. Private equity-owned practices have been known to increase the use of lucrative services, deploy advanced practice professionals in place of physicians, and circumvent conflict-of-interest laws, potentially distorting clinical care and driving up costs for consumers. Furthermore, firms generally aim to exit their investment within a 3- to 7-year timeframe, and short-term growth plans may leave physician-owners with uncertain long-term management. As private equity makes headway into women's health, physicians and policymakers must pay closer attention to how this activity can change practice patterns and transform local health care markets while also demanding transparency in the process.